Michael Saylor’s Strategy is now close enough to BlackRock’s IBIT for the overtake narrative to sound plausible, but the official record still shows only a narrow lead for the ETF and no confirmed timetable for a crossover.
Strategy’s official BTC total of 766,970 on April 4, 2026 remained below IBIT’s implied 785,130.11 BTC on April 9, 2026, leaving an 18,160.11 BTC gap in BlackRock’s favor.
Where Strategy and BlackRock’s IBIT Stand Right Now
Strategy’s holdings table also lists 672,500 BTC on December 31, 2025 and 762,099 BTC on March 31, 2026, showing that the company added 94,470 BTC across the first quarter of 2026.
BlackRock still leads because the iShares IBIT page reported 1,385,320,000 shares outstanding and a basket bitcoin amount of 22.67 as of April 9, 2026, which reconstructs to 785,130.11 BTC once the 40,000-share basket size from the fund’s annual filing is applied.
The comparison is between unlike structures, not two treasury companies. IBIT is a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin trust whose product page says it is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, while Strategy publishes its bitcoin totals on its investor-facing shares page.
For Southeast Asian traders who watch U.S. ETF data into the next Jakarta and Singapore session, the April 4 Strategy snapshot and the April 9 IBIT snapshot are more useful as a dated benchmark than as proof of an imminent flip.
Verified Holdings, Not a Verified Timeline
The “next couple of weeks” line remains unverified. Because Strategy added 94,470 BTC between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026 but still trailed IBIT by 18,160.11 BTC in the April 4 versus April 9 comparison, the crossover case is a scenario based on pace, not an official forecast.
How BlackRock’s IBIT Total Is Derived From Official Basket Data
The Calculation Method and Why It Matters
BlackRock’s April 9 product-page data provides the first two inputs, and IBIT’s annual filing provides the basket definition. The calculation is (1,385,320,000 shares outstanding / 40,000 shares per basket) x 22.67 BTC, which yields 785,130.11 BTC.
The total is best described as implied or reconstructed because the rendered product-page snapshot exposed the share count and basket bitcoin amount rather than a single plain-text holdings field. That distinction matters because it is the difference between repeating a round-number claim and showing the issuer math behind it.
That transparency also fits the broader balance-sheet theme behind TD Cowen’s call for closer attention to crypto treasury firms, where the quality of the disclosed asset base matters more than social momentum.
What Could Close or Widen the Gap Next
In its latest public update, Strategy said it bought 4,871 BTC for about $329.9 million at about $67,718 per bitcoin and held 766,970 BTC as of April 5, 2026, a disclosure that keeps the race live even though it does not by itself erase the 18,160.11 BTC gap measured against IBIT’s April 9 position.
Strategy has acquired 4,871 BTC for ~$329.9 million at ~$67,718 per bitcoin. As of 4/5/2026, we hold 766,970 $BTC acquired for ~$58.02 billion at ~$75,644 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRChttps://t.co/NcJj3FXYkg
— Strategy (@Strategy) April 6, 2026
What Readers Should Monitor Next
Readers should track Strategy’s next holdings update and IBIT’s next shares-outstanding change, because fresh company buying narrows the gap while ETF creations can widen it again. That is the cleaner test than relying on a single unconfirmed social-media post about timing.
The same lens helps connect this story to Kanalcoin’s recent pieces on Strategy’s earlier 2,645 BTC purchase and Wall Street’s growing focus on crypto treasury firms, because both point to corporate accumulation as a market theme even before the holder leaderboard changes hands.
With April 4 Strategy holdings still below April 9 IBIT holdings, the cautious framing also fits the broader risk-sensitive backdrop Kanalcoin recently highlighted in Betsson’s sharp post-earnings selloff. In both cases, markets are rewarding verified disclosures over narrative momentum.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.