Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin Hits ‘Fall’ in Market Cycle

Morgan Stanley identified the current Bitcoin market phase as “fall,” or “harvest time,” signaling a period for realizing gains, according to recent strategic guidance from the financial firm.

This characterization reflects institutional interest, focusing on Bitcoin amid increased ETF adoption and wealth management offerings, potentially influencing broader cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin Market Phase Identified as ‘Fall’ by Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has recently identified the current Bitcoin market phase as “fall” or “harvest time,” indicating a period when investors might realize gains. This perspective is part of a broader strategic analysis by the firm’s Wealth Management team.

The insights were provided by senior strategists Denny Galindo and Michael Cyprys, through the “Crypto Goes Mainstream” podcast. Morgan Stanley has been guiding wealth management decisions, focusing mainly on crypto allocations for high-net-worth individuals.

Bitcoin Surpasses $125,000 as Institutional Focus Grows

This shift is accompanied by expanded access to crypto products for clients, emphasizing Bitcoin. The advisory services have allowed for broader participation, highlighting a robust institutional focus on Bitcoin allocations and forecasting market impacts.

Data shows Bitcoin reaching new highs above $125,000 while exchange balances decrease, aligning with historical “harvest” cycles. This new investment period might bring elevated volatility, as historically observed during such phases, affecting broader market trends.

Bitcoin Cycles Linked to Global Money Supply Trends

Morgan Stanley associates Bitcoin cycles with global M2 money supply trends, drawing parallels to previous “fall” phases which typically conclude by November. These patterns historically suggest a late-stage market cycle for Bitcoin investors.

“We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. So we’re in, maybe the tail end of fall; Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last?” — Denny Galindo, Global Investment Committee, Morgan Stanley

Experts from Kanalcoin emphasize the importance of monitoring institutional behaviors, noting that such market stages have consistently shown increased volatility influenced by macro-economic shifts and institutional engagement in crypto markets.