Kalshi's $1 billion raise at an $11 billion valuation in December 2025 highlights a shift in prediction markets, with regulatory support enabling platforms like Polymarket to expand within the U.S.
Prediction markets reshape valuation strategies, offering regulated venues for traders. Increased volumes and regulatory approvals attract financial market attention, impacting liquidity dynamics across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi's $1B Raise Positions It as Market Leader
Kalshi and Polymarket are spearheading a shift in prediction markets, with Kalshi disclosing a $1B raise at an $11B valuation. These platforms position prediction markets as vital infrastructure for pricing uncertainties in tech valuations. "We are framing prediction markets as infrastructure for pricing uncertainty," said Tarek Mansour, Founder of Kalshi.
Key integrations include Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini, which enhance market accessibility. The CFTC amended order allows Polymarket U.S. access via brokers, emphasizing the growth of regulated platforms. This shift impacts the tech sector's valuation approach.
Kalshi Targets $30B Annual Volume by 2025
The market's response has been notable, with Kalshi targeting a $30B annual volume by end-2025. It achieved $5.8B in November alone, showcasing the significant liquidity shift from decentralized to regulated platforms.
Regulatory adjustments, such as Gemini's approval as a Designated Contract Market, suggest a trend towards objective market outcomes. The shift towards regulation is changing how tech companies are valued, driven by real-time predictions and data.
Polymarket's Dominance Shifts Toward Regulated Platforms
Previously, Polymarket dominated the market with a 90-99% share, especially during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Current changes mirror the speculation-driven retail phase moving towards regulated growth in 2025.
Experts suggest the increasing concentration of liquidity in regulated platforms could redefine valuation methodologies. Historical trends support a shift where real-time data and compliance with regulations are pivotal in shaping market dynamics.
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